By Steven Cohen, Ph.D., Director of the M.S. in Sustainability Management program, School of Professional Studies
The war in Iran has raised the price of gasoline and reinforced the possibility that oil supplies can always be disrupted. This has, at a minimum, stimulated sales of used electric vehicles in the United States. While federal electric vehicle (EV) subsidies have disappeared, shopping for EVs, although not sales of new EVs, has increased. According to Cox Automotive:
“Electric-vehicles sales fell by 27% year over year in Q1, according to the latest counts from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book… With the recent volatility in fuel prices driven by a war in the Middle East, interest in EVs has increased and shopping traffic at Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader sights has notably improved. Still, shopping traffic is only one measure. Sales are the measure that counts, and history shows that a meaningful shift in the automotive industry is a slow process. Hybrids are now mainstream in America. It’s been a 25-year journey… The next chapter in the EV market will be shaped less by policy and more by new product and pricing strategies. New EV prices have been trending lower and incentives remain plentiful, helping to offset affordability concerns for many shoppers, and there are smaller, more affordable EV options on the way. At the same time, a growing volume of off lease EVs and used EV inventory is entering the market, expanding choice but also providing new competition in the market. EV share of new-vehicle sales will likely increase from here, but the march back to 10% is going to be slow.”
According to Mike Winters of CNBC: “Hybrids accounted for nearly 20% of new vehicle sales by late 2025, nearly triple their share from three years earlier.” Used EV sales are up nearly 17% over last year, as consumers start to understand the lower operation and maintenance costs of electric vehicles, along with the sudden increase of more plentiful used EVs, which are cost-competitive with internal combustion vehicles. Most of the sales of EVs in the United States (over 80%) are to people who live in single-family homes, due to the simplicity of home charging. However, one of the less visible elements of the transition to electric vehicles is the dramatic expansion of public charging stations. As Shannon Osaka reported in the Washington Post back in January:
“…even as EV sales are slumping, deployment of fast chargers is booming. According to a report released Wednesday by the charging data company Paren, the fast-charging network increased more than 30 percent in 2025, with over 18,000 new ports installed… The country now has over 13,200 public fast-charging stations dotting the country — with more than 3,300 of those stations installed just last year…And it’s not just fast chargers. The country now has around 64,000 “Level 2” charging stations, according to the U.S. Department of Energy…Combined, that brings the total number of public charging stations to roughly 77,000 — or more than half of the total number of gas stations in the country. The boom is mostly driven by the private sector — just 3 percent of the fast chargers deployed last year were funded by the federal government.”
The resistance to EV adoption in the United States is not matched abroad. While we are seeing slow growth in the market, according to the International Energy Agency, the U.S. rate of adoption is much lower than any other part of the developed world:
“Electric car sales grew by 20% globally to exceed 20 million in 2025, meaning one-quarter of all new cars sold were electric. Europe saw the strongest growth among major electric vehicle (EV) markets, with electric car sales rising by more than 30% to reach 28% of total sales…China’s growth in electric car sales slowed slightly…but EVs still accounted for nearly 55% of all car sales. In the United States, electric car sales remained relatively stable at just under 10% of car sales.”
The diffusion of new technology is always subject to a variety of influences. After a home purchase and paying for a child’s education, buying a motor vehicle is often a household’s largest expense. All three major expenditures are typically capital expenses, funded in part by loans. Unlike buying a new smartphone, consumers are likely to be quite conservative and very careful about these large expenditures. In the case of EVs, they may well wait a while to see if the technology lives up to its promise. Issues with early EVs, such as power loss during cold weather and gaps in charging infrastructure, discouraged EV adoption. So too did the removal of tax incentives. Chinese EVs are higher quality and much lower priced than American EVs and are market dominators nearly everywhere but in the United States, where protectionist trade policy prevents their sale. Nevertheless, eventually American companies will catch up, and the technical advantages of electric vehicles will encourage purchase by our consumers.
There may be economic, cultural, and even political constraints on the acceptability of new technology. We’ve seen ideological opposition to EVs due to their promotion as a method of reducing greenhouse gases. Some people who do not “believe” in climate change seem to see EVs as an affront to American greatness. Cost, however, is a key issue. In American models, EVs are priced higher than internal combustion engine vehicles, and so even though they cost less to operate, their upfront cost has discouraged adoption. Resistance may also come from nostalgic attachment to the old technology, along with fear of navigating a new and unfamiliar technology. Many of us experience this every time a piece of software we depend on is “updated,” and we need to learn how the new system operates.
Social scientists, beginning in earnest with Everett M. Rogers’ classic 1962 volume entitled Diffusion of Innovations, have extensively studied the process of adopting new technologies. Rogers created a typology of innovation adopters ranging from innovators and early adopters to laggards and described the process of innovation beginning with awareness and knowledge and ending with adoption or implementation and evaluation. We have seen many new technologies embraced in the 20th and 21st centuries. These included personal computers, the internet, smartphones, cable TV, streaming videos, GPS, and wireless internet. These followed earlier inventions such as the motor vehicle, air travel, refrigerators, air conditioning, radio, and television. Both centuries have witnessed a dramatic expansion of medical technologies and methodologies. Our world has been transformed by technological innovation, and humankind has benefited from the contributions of science and technology.
But new technologies bring costs along with benefits. We see this with social media and expect it with Artificial Intelligence. Technological innovation has brought increased pollution of our air, water, and land by petrochemicals and the proliferation of toxics and plastics. And we have seen negative technological impact that resulted in losses of biodiversity and increased global warming. We have also been able to deploy new technologies to reduce the negative impact of old technologies. Electric vehicles reduce some of the worst environmental impacts of the internal combustion engine. But they are not pollution-free. They create problems from the disposal of toxics to the impact of mining rare earth minerals. But these impacts can also be addressed via technological innovation. To the extent we have reduced environmental impacts, it has not been by reducing consumption patterns but by changing those patterns due to the adoption of new technologies that perform the same functions as old ones, add new and desired features, and do all this with less environmental impact.
The economic history of the past several centuries demonstrates the power and momentum of technological innovation. A certainty is that technologies that provide new features, ease of use, and reasonable cost replace technologies with fewer features over time. The Model T was better than the horse-drawn carriage. Electric vehicles are better technologies than those powered by internal combustion engines. The reduction of mechanical auto components by electric and computer-controlled components has been widespread, relentless, and unstoppable. Even non-electric-powered vehicles are inundated with computer chips and electronic controls. The only issue is the speed of change. In the United States, electric vehicles are the future, hybrids are the present, and internal combustion will soon be a technology of the past.
Views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Columbia School of Professional Studies or Columbia University.
About the Program
The Columbia University M.S. in Sustainability Management program offered by the School of Professional Studies in partnership with the Climate School provides students cutting-edge policy and management tools they can use to help public and private organizations and governments address environmental impacts and risks, pollution control, and remediation to achieve sustainability. The program is customized for working professionals and is offered as both a full- and part-time course of study.
