By Doug Usher, Advisor to the Political Analytics Program, School of Professional Studies
There’s an old joke in politics: “What do you call a candidate who runs an incredible campaign in an uphill race, and falls just short?”
“A loser.”
Running for office is a tough business. There are few other professions where you work endless hours, spend millions of dollars (some of it your own), and have your fate determined all at once by people who barely know you. If you win, you get to take office. And if you lose, you go home with nothing but memories (and sometimes a hefty campaign debt). Brutal.
Tennessee Democratic State House Representative Aftyn Behn defied expectations mightily as she lost a special election congressional race against Matt Van Epps—by just 9 points in a district that President Trump won by 22 points just a year earlier. Van Epps will head to Washington and bolster the GOP’s slim House majority.
Yet, despite this loss, national Democrats are giddy, and the GOP is fretting. This result, combined with recent blowout Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia, indicate the challenge for Republicans going into 2026. With a razor thin majority in the House, just a few points’ swing in Democrats’ direction could flip that chamber in 2026.
Analytics—when used for predicting multiple races—uses all available data to get an estimate of how many seats are likely to swing one way or the other. For this type of exercise, winning and losing isn’t all that matters—it’s performance against expectations. While Behn lost, her margin is what matters for the predictive exercise. Why? Because if that trend continues, districts where Trump won by (say) 9 or fewer points now could be vulnerable to a Democratic wave.
As analytics experts prepare their ongoing predictions, they’re starting to see a Democratic wave. But how big? If they improve their 2024 performance just a little bit, they will likely take the House. And if they overperform by 10 points, the U.S. Senate comes into range. That’s a lot of ifs—particularly among an electorate as unpredictable as U.S. voters over the last few cycles.
So was Tuesday a moral victory for Democrats? The data says yes, and portends success into 2026.
But if you ask Aftyn Behn or their campaign team the morning after, the answer would definitely be no. It’s a tough way to make a living.
Views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Columbia School of Professional Studies or Columbia University.
About the Program
The Columbia University M.S. in Political Analytics program provides students quantitative skills in an explicitly political context, facilitating crosswalk with nontechnical professionals and decision-makers—and empowers students to become decision-makers themselves.
The 36-credit program is available part-time and full-time, on-campus. Learn more about the program here.
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