By Doug Usher, Advisor to the Political Analytics Program, School of Professional Studies
By all accounts, Vice President Kamala Harris won the debate against former President Trump on September 10. Harris achieved her objectives by making her policy points simply and clearly while goading Trump to focus on crowd sizes and inflammatory accusations rather than stay on the safer ground of inflation and immigration.
The CNN post-debate poll bore this out: 63% of debate-watchers said that Harris won the debate, while just 37% gave the nod to Trump.
News coverage of the debate advanced this perspective further, centering on Trump “taking the bait” whenever Harris set him up, and social media was ablaze with memes focused on his inaccurate and inflammatory accusations of Haitian immigrants eating family pets.
So will this strong debate performance translate to polling improvements and an eventual victory? The answer is a solid “maybe.”
Here are the debate winners over the last four election cycles, according to CNN flash polls:
- 2008: Obama (who went on to win)
- 2012: Romney (who went on to lose)
- 2016: Clinton (who went on to lose)
- 2020: Biden (who went on to win)
In other words, the presidential campaign is not just a debate contest. With that said, debates are at the time of the debate the most important thing in the campaign. The last debate (Biden-Trump) was perhaps the most impactful in history, as it led to a candidate’s withdrawal.
What can we expect? If the narrative set by the debate—Harris as a confident candidate who projects passion and strength, and Trump as focused on the past and responding to any perceived slight—becomes the popular campaign narrative, she should see improvement in the polls.
However, if the debate quickly recedes in the public’s attention, then the race could once again return to its current baseline, which is a small, persistent lead for Harris.
No matter the outcome, Harris had a good night on September 10. And it is up to her to maintain the momentum—and up to Trump to turn the page.
And if you want to learn more about how people use data to make election predictions, take a look at our panel from our 2024 Political Analytics Conference.
About the Program
The Columbia University M.S. in Political Analytics program provides students quantitative skills in an explicitly political context, facilitating crosswalk with nontechnical professionals and decision-makers—and empowers students to become decision-makers themselves.
The 36-credit program is available part-time and full-time. For general information and admissions questions, please call 212-854-9666 or email politicalanalytics [[at]] sps [[dot]] columbia [[dot]] edu (politicalanalytics[at]sps[dot]columbia[dot]edu).
