By Doug Usher, Advisor to the Political Analytics Program, School of Professional Studies
As election season heats up, Columbia’s M.S. in Political Analytics program and the American Association of Political Consultants will host an on-campus event on November 13, featuring leaders from the New York City and New Jersey races and Columbia faculty who will provide expert analysis. Register now.
Election season seems to never end in the United States, and as voters head to the polls in states like New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and California, the stakes are high. What the numbers look like on election night could have a massive impact on national politics.
With a government shutdown putting Washington in the deep freeze and the 2026 congressional elections a year away, political leaders will be looking at these 2025 races for critical signals about the mood of the electorate.
Here are three questions about the numbers from next month’s elections that have real implications on the national political landscape:
1. Do the results in Virginia and New Jersey provide a mandate for Trump to keep going, or a sharp rebuke?
The answer requires a closer look than simply identifying winners and losers—it’s about how the candidates perform relative to expectations. Based on historical trends, Democrats should take both of these gubernatorial races. If New Jersey is close (and it was very close in 2021), Republicans will view it as evidence that voters like what they see. But if Democrats pull off a strong win in New Jersey and an even stronger one in Virginia, you could see a change in tone from the GOP in Washington.
2. Can a candidate-driven outsider campaign reshape New York City’s electorate?
Much has been said about Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign, but one thing was irrefutable in the primary: He drew tens of thousands of new voters, many of them young. His unconventional campaign—one which spent almost nothing on regular TV ads until the final weeks—may be a new model for building your own audience without regard to the political establishment and traditional tactics. If the exit polls show a dramatically different electorate than past mayoral races, watch other campaigns mimic his efforts to try to reshape their own electorates to win.
3. Will California take the redistricting wars to a new level?
Redistricting has taken center stage this year after Texas moved to reshape its congressional map. If Californians pass a highly technical statewide initiative allowing them to follow suit and match Texas’s red with Golden State blue, the analytics nerds will take over. They will carefully pack voters in districts to maximize Democratic seats, squeezing the already small GOP delegation in California to nearly nothing.
Another year, another election season—and analytics leads the way! Stay tuned.
Views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Columbia School of Professional Studies or Columbia University.
About the Program
The Columbia University M.S. in Political Analytics program provides students quantitative skills in an explicitly political context, facilitating crosswalk with nontechnical professionals and decision-makers—and empowers students to become decision-makers themselves.
The 36-credit program is available part-time and full-time, on-campus, and online. Learn more about the program here.
For general information and admissions questions, please call 212-854-9666 or email politicalanalytics [[at]] sps [[dot]] columbia [[dot]] edu (politicalanalytics[at]sps[dot]columbia[dot]edu).
