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What Next Week’s Elections Could Tell Us About 2024

If you follow politics—whether through traditional news sources, blogs, or social media—you know that the vast majority of attention is on 2024. But in just a few short days, real, consequential elections will be happening, with robust campaigns at the local and state level working at breakneck speed. And the number crunchers are watching closely to uncover trends for both sides.

In Virginia, voters are going to the polls for statewide legislative elections, where split control of both the House and Senate (by thin margins) are up for grabs. With a GOP governor, any change could have a dramatic impact.

In Ohio, abortion is on the ballot—literally. A statewide referendum will determine whether to enshrine a right to abortion in the state’s constitution, with over $30 million spent on ads just since Labor Day.

Competitive gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi (surprisingly) are coming to a close on Tuesday.

Will Biden’s recent lower ratings doom Democrats’ chances in these races? Will abortion (and the Dobbs decision) continue to provide some headwind for Republicans in the many races (beyond Ohio) where it’s been injected into the campaigns? 

When the elections are over and the votes are tallied, we’ll have a lot more data to consider on the road to 2024. And maybe some actual insight into where things are going.