By David Wolfson, Lecturer in the Political Analytics Program, School of Professional Studies
The presidential race officially kicks off this month. No doubt there will be some interesting bumps and unexpected fireworks in the upcoming weeks leading up to February. Millions upon millions of dollars will be spent on these early primaries—but will all that money, along with grassroots campaigning, equal a win?
Republican primary voters in a few critical states will decide who their nominee will be this fall. Some states hold primaries. Others hold caucuses. Although there are contests all the way up to the summer, it is just three states—Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina—that will matter the most in the Republican primary process. These three states usually determine the Republican nominee, in reality.
Iowa holds its caucuses in the middle of winter, at night, in high school gymnasiums and church basements throughout the Hawkeye State. New Hampshire next hosts the nation’s first primary, but with a unique twist: It’s an open primary. This means that not just Republicans can vote in the Republican presidential primary. A month later, South Carolina Republicans cast a ballot for their nominee.
Many times, the winner of the Iowa caucuses doesn’t win the nomination. The New Hampshire Republican primary has also seen frontrunners lose—and often. Why is that? The demographics of Republican voters who cast ballots in each of those states differ somewhat.
This is why the skills of political analytics professionals are so important for targeting in early primaries. Creating analytical models to know which voters will turn out (in the middle of winter!) is of the utmost importance. In fact, predicting the likelihood voters will cast a ballot for specific candidates is how these primaries are won. That skillset is extremely valuable to presidential campaigns.
What to look for this 2024 primary season? Will former president Trump run away with the primaries? Will we see an upset in New Hampshire? How will that translate to South Carolina?
If Governor Haley manages to pull an upset in New Hampshire, will she be able to win a month later in
her home state of South Carolina? South Carolina is far more conservative than New Hampshire. Will she have the momentum to compete on Super Tuesday? The Republican primary in South Carolina may be the most interesting contest to watch this winter.
Two questions will get answered in South Carolina: Is Governor Haley more of a factional candidate? And can she win her own home state?
If she can’t win at home, it could be game over.
David Wolfson is a national pollster and teaches Political Leadership at Columbia University’s graduate Political Analytics program.
Views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Columbia School of Professional Studies or Columbia University.
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The Columbia University M.S. in Political Analytics program provides students quantitative skills in an explicitly political context, facilitating crosswalk with nontechnical professionals and decision-makers—and empowers students to become decision-makers themselves.
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