By Steven Cohen, Ph.D., Director of the M.S. in Sustainability Management program, School of Professional Studies
The Trump Administration is not only removing subsidies for renewable energy and electric vehicles, it is actively opposing wind farm siting and threatening permits for nearly built facilities. Despite these ill-advised policies, state and local governments and private corporations are continuing to invest in renewable energy, charging stations, and electric vehicles. They are doing this for both business and environmental reasons. While I suspect progress toward decarbonized energy will be lower in 2025 than expected, 2023 and 2024 saw significant additions to America’s non-fossil fuel supply of electricity. According to Lori Bird, Andrew Light, and Ian Goldsmith of the World Resources Institute:
“Solar deployment and electric vehicle (EV) sales broke records in 2023 and 2024. Renewables now dominate new power generation capacity, while new domestic clean energy manufacturing facilities are popping up around the nation. However, headwinds are also getting stronger. Several challenges persist that are slowing deployment, including lack of sufficient grid capacity and large interconnection queues, permitting and siting challenges, high interest rates, and lingering supply chain issues… Taken all together, renewables vastly outpaced other generation sources and collectively accounted for around 90% of the United States’ new installed capacity in 2024. With the new projects online, renewables (including wind, solar, geothermal and hydropower) and battery storage now make up 30% of the country’s large-scale power generating capacity. In 2024, all carbon free electricity sources, including nuclear, supplied nearly 44% of electricity, while renewables, including small-scale solar, supplied nearly 25%.”
A decaying energy grid and increased demand for electricity will require massive investment in energy infrastructure. This will result in higher costs for rate payers and a search for lower-cost sources of energy. Despite the ideological preference for fossil fuels articulated by many in the Trump administration, fossil fuels are subject to wide price fluctuations due to political and economic uncertainties. While plenty of fossil fuels remain beneath our planet’s surface, they are finite, harder to get to, and not immune from the laws of supply and demand. The source of renewable energy is, in practical terms, infinite. Our sun will outlast our species. Once renewable energy infrastructure is installed, the costs of energy are much more stable due to the known costs of infrastructure and the zero cost of solar power.
Technological advances in solar cell efficiency and battery capacity are already resulting in price reductions for solar energy. As capital costs become lower, energy costs will also decline. Although climate activists push renewable energy for the benefit of greenhouse gas reduction, a growing number of renewable energy and electric vehicle proponents are starting to replace climate arguments with cases built on lower costs. In a recent piece in the Wall Street Journal, Clara Hudson reported on California’s persistent effort to promote electric vehicles and install charging stations. According to Hudson:
“The Trump administration’s efforts to bludgeon electric-vehicle incentives hit some in the industry with a jolt. But in California, ground zero in the clash over EV policy, the push for electrification is still moving forward. Investments in EV chargers and new electric vehicle manufacturing sites are continuing in the state… Electric vehicle business ZM Trucks just launched its U.S. headquarters and an assembly facility in Fontana, Calif. The company’s chief executive, Joost de Vries, said that, despite current headwinds, they want the facility to withstand multiple administrations. “It’s a 10-year decision, not three,” he said. De Vries wants the EV industry to put less emphasis on emissions, and instead highlight financial benefits to demonstrate to buyers that getting in on electric is the best financial choice. “It’s a commercial decision, we have to stop talking about emissions, it’s an added benefit, it’s a plus, but it has to make commercial sense to a buyer,” he said. “Stop talking politics, start talking money.”
That is the point. Technological transitions take place when the new technology is better, more reliable, and less expensive than the technology being replaced. Public policy and subsidies might accelerate the transition process, but, in the end, the new technology must stand on its own. When the auto replaced the horse, we didn’t tax or ban horses. Of course, government did subsidize motor vehicle use by building roads, something cars needed and horses could do without. Renewable energy and electric vehicle technologies have vastly improved over the past decade, and we will see additional, dramatic advances in the next decade. The role of the federal government in this transition will be trivial over the next several years, and some states are retreating from decarbonization. Nevertheless, many state and local governments remain committed to the transition to renewable energy. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures:
“Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) require that a specified percentage of the electricity utilities sell comes from renewable resources. States have created these standards to diversify their energy resources, promote domestic energy production and encourage economic development… Iowa was the first state to establish an RPS; since then, more than half of states have established renewable energy targets. Thirty states, Washington, D.C., and two territories have active renewable or clean energy requirements, while an additional three states and one territory have set voluntary renewable energy goals. RPS legislation has seen two opposing trends in recent years. On one hand, many states with RPS targets are expanding or renewing those goals. Since 2018, 19 states, two territories, and Washington, D.C., have passed legislation to increase or expand their renewable or clean energy targets. On the other hand, eight states and one territory have allowed their RPS targets to expire. Montana repealed its RPS in 2021.”
It is possible that the United States is heading to a future with two energy systems. One will be a modern system with a carefully calibrated computer-controlled electric grid powered by renewable energy. It will include microgrids and distributed sources of energy to enhance reliability and efficiency. This modern system will provide more reliable and lower-cost energy. The second system will be a centralized, inefficient, aging grid powered by fossil fuels, which will result in higher energy costs and frequent blackouts. Energy is so critical to modern economic life that states that refuse to modernize their energy system today will have difficulty attracting businesses and people tomorrow.
Here in New York City, and in many other American cities, the local government is participating in efforts to decarbonize and modernize their energy system. Local Law 97 provides a road map for a gradual, long-term transition to more energy-efficient and less polluting energy consumption in New York City. The city’s government is not only asking the private sector to decarbonize but also investing in its own facilities. In a 2024 report on the 5th anniversary of Local Law 97, the Department of Citywide Administrative Services (DCAS) summarized its progress, observing that:
“DCAS has focused on retrofitting building energy systems, especially “deep energy retrofits,” which aim to reduce energy consumption in city-owned buildings by at least 50%. Over the past decade, the City has invested nearly $1 billion in building energy-efficiency projects, resulting in an impressive annual energy reduction of approximately 8%. These energy retrofits not only contribute to significant energy savings but also align with NYC's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2050… Over the past 10 years, DCAS has enhanced operational efficiency and project delivery through expedited mechanisms and strategic planning. The Direct Install Lighting Program continues to facilitate fast and efficient energy-efficient lighting upgrades across multiple agencies, and adopting the design-build method has streamlined solar installations and energy efficiency projects. DCAS also continues to collaborate with various agencies to develop energy master plans prioritizing energy efficiency projects, and aligning capital planning with climate mitigation goals.”
Finally, American corporations are actively installing and procuring solar power. According to a 2024 report by the Solar Energy Industries Association:
“Target has maintained its position as the #1 company for on-site solar with Prologis, Walmart, and Amazon all maintaining their rankings from our previous 2022 report. Blackstone moved up the rankings from #6 to #5, beating out Lineage Logistics by 18 MW. If it were a state, Target would be the 13th largest for on-site solar ahead of Texas and Florida… Across the whole United States, rooftop commercial solar capacity has grown at 12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the past five years. For many companies with large brick-and-mortar locations, on-site solar will continue to be a cornerstone of their energy procurement strategy. Much of the growth in this space has come from historical leaders in on-site deployment. These companies have a strong understanding of the development process and established relationships with solar industry partners working across a variety of project sites, enabling expansion into new markets.”
Solar installations for some companies are now an integrated element of their approach to energy procurement. They know the vendors, they understand the economics, and they routinely include it in their energy mix. As the electric grid becomes more reliant on renewable energy, their procurement of off-site renewables will complement their on-site installations.
I am not arguing that the Trump Administration’s backward-looking energy policy is a positive development. I am maintaining that despite the President’s skill at dominating social and traditional media, the on-the-ground reality of price and established practices ensures that progress toward a modern and decarbonized energy system will continue.
Views and opinions expressed here are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Columbia School of Professional Studies or Columbia University.
About the Program
The Columbia University M.S. in Sustainability Management program offered by the School of Professional Studies in partnership with the Climate School provides students cutting-edge policy and management tools they can use to help public and private organizations and governments address environmental impacts and risks, pollution control, and remediation to achieve sustainability. The program is customized for working professionals and is offered as both a full- and part-time course of study.
